Constantin Gurdgiev: Oil’s bucking bull

My best guess is that prices will stay north of $50 a barrel this year - but in this climate, nothing is certain

The short-term oil price fluctuations of recent weeks are a masterclass in what risk research analysts call a Vuca environment: volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.

Oil prices are being driven simultaneously by the uncertain and complex long-run fundamentals of supply and demand, and short-term shocks which are highly volatile and ambiguous in their net impacts. In simple terms, this means that predicting the future path of oil prices is a perilous undertaking.

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