Human behaviour holds key to plotting the path of Covid-19
Statisticians can project case numbers if we move to level 2, 3 or more of 5, but less knowable is how people will change the way they act over the Christmas period
Trying to predict Covid-19 is a losing game. The way the coronavirus spreads is volatile, and a single event can hugely change the course of case numbers. So much of its path is also down to one of the most elusive and mystifying variables of all – human behaviour.
This is the view of Paul Dempsey, a mathematician with Dazult, an analysis firm. Dempsey has applied his study of statistical models to Irish Covid-19 case ...