Code Delta: Unpacking the Nphet Covid-19 projections

Nphet’s modelling of potentially alarming scenarios for how the Delta variant will unfold has provoked frustration among an exhausted public. But to what extent are they correct? And do we still have time to take action?

A busy Grafton Street with shopping restrictions lifted: Nphet fears a fourth wave of Covid causing high case numbers due to the Delta variant. Picture: Getty

“All models are wrong, but some are useful,” the statistician George EP Box once said.

The question many are asking is: how wrong and how useful are the Delta variant models used by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) last week to measure the potential impact of the planned but now suspended July 5 full reopening of indoor dining?

The scenarios leaked from Nphet’s Monday briefing caused controversy, with the most pessimistic one predicting ...