There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the centre of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.
The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the US and China over technology, with both vying for dominance over the industries of the future: artificial...
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