Red C Poll

Sinn Féin poll crisis: four years of gains wiped out as party slides back 4 points to 25%

Mary Lou McDonald’s party down seven points since October in back to back drops as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stagnate

Mary Lou McDonald: Sinn Féin is now a full 11 points down from its peak support of 36 per cent recorded in May 2022. Picture: PA

Support for Sinn Féin has slumped to its lowest level since the last general election, according to the latest Business Post/Red C poll.

Mary Lou McDonald’s party has dropped four points in just two months and now finds itself on 25 per cent, down from 29 per cent in November.

While Sinn Féin remains the most popular political outfit in the country, the latest poll means the party has dropped a total of seven points from 32 per cent support last October, its lowest level of support in four years.

It is now a full 11 points down from its peak support of 36 per cent recorded in May 2022.

Sinn Féin support remains strongest among working-class voters (36 per cent) and in Connacht/Ulster (31 per cent). The party remains weaker in Dublin (18 per cent), while the party is slightly more popular with women (27 per cent) than men (24 per cent).

The decline in support for Sinn Féin this month continues to be driven primarily by a consistent drop in support amongst 18- to 34-year-olds following a steady decline since April 2023.

Support among this cohort stood at 31 per cent in November but has now dropped to 27 per cent.

The results of the Red C poll would indicate that Sinn Féin’s recent strategy on immigration has put voters off after the party became increasingly vocal on the issue in recent months ahead of June’s local and European elections.

The party is now just five points ahead of Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael, whose support remains unchanged at 20 per cent in this month’s poll.

Fianna Fáil is up one point to 17 per cent, while the largest increase was for Independents with support for this cohort up by two points to 15 per cent.

The findings will come as a relief for Micheál Martin’s party, which has not polled at 17 per cent since this time last year having consistently polled at between 15 and 16 per cent throughout 2023.

Among the smaller parties, the Social Democrats continue to lead on a stable 6 per cent, however there has been no change in support for Holly Cairns’ party, the Labour Party or the Green Party.

Ivana Bacik’s party remains on 4 per cent alongside Eamon Ryan’s party, which is also on 4 per cent.

Aontú has seen its support rise by 1 point to 3 per cent, with People Before Profit-Solidarity remaining unchanged on 3 per cent.

For the first time in a Business Post/Red C poll, 1 per cent of people polled said they would vote for a far-right party in Ireland.

According to this poll, Fine Gael remains the most popular party among those aged 55 and over.

Speaking at an event in Dublin last week, Phil Hogan, the former Fine Gael minister and EU trade commissioner, said Sinn Féin was “killing all their sacred cows” before getting into government, but that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may actually win the election.

Hogan also pushed back on the idea that Sinn Féin were certain to enter government, and criticised the media narrative suggesting that this was the case.

“Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in my view have every chance of winning the next election if they stick together and they transfer to each other. The Green Party are under a bit of pressure,” he said.

The full state of the parties is as follows: Sinn Féin is at 25 per cent (down 4); Fine Gael is at 20 per cent (unchanged); Fianna Fáil is at 17 per cent (up 1); the Social Democrats are at 6 per cent (unchanged); the Labour Party is at 4 per cent (unchanged); the Green Party is also unchanged at 4 per cent; People Before Profit – Solidarity Party is unchanged at 3 per cent while Aontú is up one point to 3 per cent. Independents are up to 15 per cent (up 2).

Red C interviewed 1,003 people online between Friday January 19 and Wednesday January 24 and the interviews were conducted across the country.