Complexities of US system could give Obama the edge

The White House incumbent is a narrow favourite to claim enough of the crucial swing states for victory, writes Gavin Barrett.

Nobody will count electoral chickens before they hatch in what has been a tightly-fought US presidential election. Nevertheless, as Ezra Klein of the Washington Post has put it, "unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any we've yet seen in the race", Barack Obama will win Tuesday's vote. Given that the national-level polls have tended to show more or less a dead heat - and, in some cases, ...