There’s no such thing as a dead cert

At this time of year, investment gurus are busy peddling certainties that are just guesswork in disguise

John Looby

Driving to visit my parents some years ago, I stopped to fill up at a busy, suburban petrol station. At the time, the oil price had been rising sharply and the airwaves were thick with earnest babble about the many implications flowing from dramatically rising energy costs.

Just as I replaced the petrol cap on my fuel tank, I was approached by a well-known radio broadcaster wielding a microphone. He explained that he ...