According to statistical models from the New York Federal Reserve, the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has increased to just under 30 per cent, which is the highest reading since the global financial crisis in 2008/9 (the model looks at the coincident changes in a number of leading indicators which have previously led to US recessions).
While the probability of a US recession is still less than one-third, it will doubtless focus minds...
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