Tuesday March 31, 2020

Poll analysis points to a narrow Yes victory

Taking into account the fact that the majority of undecided voters are likely to vote No in the upcoming referendum, but may be unwilling to say so, we asked voters what they thought the outcome would be. The result: a narrow 56 per cent vote for Yes

20th May, 2018
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The difficulties in predicting many referendums over the last number of years has led Red C to investigate different ways to predict the outcome. The problems with predicting a referendum are twofold.

First, the subject in question is often contentious and divides the population, meaning people are less likely to want to share their views. The idea of ‘shy’ voters has been long examined in election campaigns, by a number of academics and pollsters. The...

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