Weakening tiger, but still a hidden dragon

Even if China's economy comes to spluttering halt this year after 20 years of incredible growth, it's still too big to ignore, writes David McWilliams.

24th March, 2012
Shenzhen, south China: 20 years ago, it was a fishing port -- today it is bigger than New York. Photo: Bloomberg

Could the China that Enda Kenny is visiting this week enter a recession in the next year or two? Yes, a recession, not a gradual slowdown, but a recession. This might seem a preposterous suggestion, given what we know has happened in the past ten years. But that is precisely the point. The recent past has been stellar, but all growth spurts come to an end, particularly those driven by huge credit growth.

For China,...

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