Post-Paisley era could throw up big surprises

For next month’s British general election, the DUP is without Ian Paisley, the rebranded UUP is backing the Tories and Sinn Féin is pursuing an unpopular education policy. Which of them will survive the fight?

There are two vividly contrasting scenarios for the outcome of next month’s general election in the North. One would see the current status retained, and the other would point to a major crisis for at least one of unionism’s three leaders, with wider political consequences down the line.

In the first scenario, the DUP would retain nine seats - with Ian Paisley Jr replacing Paisley Sr, Sinn Féin having five, the SDLP having ...