A real curveball: why the US Fed’s policy pivot matters

The recent inversion of the American yield curve tells us that investors are spooked about slowing growth

7th April, 2019

In late March, the US yield curve inverted, meaning that longer-term interest rates are paying less than shorter-term ones.

An inverted yield curve signals that the probability of a US recession is increasing.

The New York Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) measure of a US recession over the forthcoming 12 months increased to 24.62 per cent, the highest level since the financial crisis. Indeed, each recession of the last 35 years has been preceded by an inverted...

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