Analysis: Variants and vaccines make projecting path of virus more complex

While the vaccine rollout should reduce the number of new Covid-19 cases, the increased transmissibility of the new variant mean progress in suppressing the virus has slowed

25th February, 2021
Analysis: Variants and vaccines make projecting path of virus more complex
Dr Fiona Moynihan injects Dr Louise Jackman, a GP, with a Covid-19 vaccine at a mass vaccination centre in Dublin. The government predicts that by the end of June, 82 per cent of the adult population will have received their first dose of a vaccine. Photo: Sam Boal/Photocall Ireland

Projecting the pathway out of the pandemic has never been so tricky as modellers must contend with many moving parts.

Covid-19 case trajectories typically fell at a predictable rate in January after the most recent lockdown was introduced.

But while the vaccination rollout should see cases falling further, the increased transmissibility of the new B117 variant means progress in suppressing the virus has slowed in recent weeks.

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