In his 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki shows that large groups of people typically converge upon better predictions than even the smartest individual.
He applies this logic to financial markets, where individual investors collectively determine the prices of stocks and bonds. Insofar as the value of a stock or bond reflects its future cash flows (appropriately discounted), markets are typically considered good predictors of the future.
And yet, we know that the collective...
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