Tuesday October 27, 2020

Cash is no longer king

24th September, 2020

Corporate cash & negative interest rates

Most cash-rich organisations follow a highly conservative investment strategy aimed at protecting the value of cash in order to ensure maximum liquidity. This most often simply means leaving money on deposit at a bank or financial institution. Traditionally, some interest would be received and compounded, such that the value of cumulated profits could grow and at least keep pace with inflation, while still being liquid. Today, negative rates mean that the value of cumulated hard work and enterprise is eroded every day it is left in the bank. With negative rates here to stay for several years, the choice faced by corporate Treasurers appears stark: accept negative interest rates and erosion of value – or accept less security and liquidity.

The conservative solution

There is no one single solution to resolve this dilemma. Instead, treasurers should consider a combination of careful liquidity planning and conservative credit strategy to maintain security without negative interest rates. By doing so, it is possible to both sustain ample liquidity and sustain the real the value of retained cash earnings.

The single most important task is to determine what liquidity is needed and when will it be required? Cashflow forecasting can determine the minimum amounts required to sustain in highly liquid and secure form over time. For this purpose, both cash in the bank and investment in the highest-quality, short-term government bonds should be considered. While the latter are more secure in terms of credit risk, the yield is similarly negative on both.

Secondly, for cash in excess of foreseeable needs, some additional credit risk can be taken while still maintaining liquidity for unforeseen circumstances. For example, Goodbody has a positive income portfolio (PIP) strategy which combines a diversified range of short-dated, high quality, liquid credit instruments which together generate a modestly positive yield in euro, after all hedging and management fees are allowed for.

Thirdly, for cash holdings well in excess of foreseeable needs and precautionary balances, more risk and less liquidity could be considered, in exchange for higher expected returns. This can still be a conservative fixed income strategy, with longer-term credit instruments, or it can of course extend even further into public equity markets or illiquid private markets, insofar as the corporate investment policy allows.

What’s at stake?

Consider a company with €10 million cash on bank deposit, now suffering a -0.65% negative interest rate. If maximum required liquidity for the next year is estimated at €2 million, then there is €8 million on deposit that could transfer a positive yielding, high quality ‘PIP’ strategy earning say a net +0.4% yield. Combined, the negative interest on the required cash deposits and the positive yield on the conservatively invested excess cash are positive at just 0.20% -- but that is 0.85% better than the full amount being on deposit at -0.65% -- meaning €85,000 in gross difference, or more than €250,000 when compounded over three years. With some excess cash in longer-term (or riskier) instruments, the expected difference would be yet greater.

Goodbody will host a webinar on the options and strategies available to companies seeking alternatives for their cash on deposit on 1 October 2020. Register here.

Please note the content of this article is for general information purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation for you. Please speak directly to your financial advisor about what actions you should take based on your personal circumstances.

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