Thursday August 13, 2020

Comment: My advice? Prepare for more upheaval to shake the global economy

Markets are not very good at pricing geopolitical or environmental risk, but given the developments of the last few months, we should not be surprised if one or more white swans emerge before the year is out

29th July, 2020
A quiet Henry Street in Dublin: economies around the world have been decimated by Covid-19, but other ‘white swans’ could cause further difficulties this year

In February, I warned that any number of foreseeable crises, so-called “white swans”, could trigger a significant global disturbance this year.

I noted that: “the US and Iran have already had a military confrontation that will likely soon escalate; China is in the grip of a viral outbreak that could become a global pandemic; cyberwarfare is ongoing; major holders of US Treasuries are pursuing diversification strategies; the Democratic presidential primary is exposing rifts...

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