Why the ‘five-day’ rule augurs badly for markets in 2022

If major US stock-market indices rise during the first five trading days of the new calendar year, markets usually perform handsomely for the year overall

In cases when markets were down over the first five trading days, the market went on to have a net-negative year 50 per cent of the time since the 1950s. Picture: Getty

Last month, I identified what I saw as the big issues of 2022, noting that I could not recall a time when there were so many sources of uncertainty, both known and unknown. The main issue was inflation, and now that we are a few weeks into 2022, financial markets appear to be worrying about the same developments that concerned me. In fact, the problems we face are becoming more straightforward – depressingly so.

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