Superforecasters see 24% chance of Brexit as economy wins out

Some investors may be overestimating the risk of Brexit

18th May, 2016
The UK referendum on whether or not to remain in the EU takes place on June 23

Their outlook will likely disappoint Gove and surprise some investors. According to Good Judgement’s panel of “superforecasters” there is just a 24 per cent chance voters will choose to leave the bloc in the June 23 referendum. That suggests there is less uncertainty over the result than opinion polls are signalling and undershoots the probabilities calculated by banks including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Societe Generale.

“I would say ‘expect the status quo’ reasonably...

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