Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Why stagflationary debt crises will damage traditional asset portfolios

Long-term bonds and global equities will suffer, potentially incurring significant losses

As in the 1970s, persistent and repeated negative supply shocks will combine with loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies to produce stagflation. Picture: Getty

The world economy is undergoing a radical regime shift. The decades-long Great Moderation is over.

Coming after the stagflation (high inflation and severe recessions) of the 1970s and early 1980s, the Great Moderation was characterised by low inflation in advanced economies; relatively stable and robust economic growth, with short and shallow recessions; low and falling bond yields (and thus positive returns on bonds), owing to the secular fall in inflation; and sharply rising values of ...