Nouriel Roubini: Don’t bet on a soft landing for the global economy
The degree of monetary-policy tightening needed to bring inflation under control will inevitably cause a recession and higher unemployment in many countries
In 2021, the big debate about the outlook for the global economy focused on whether the rising inflation in advanced economies was transitory or persistent. Key central banks and most researchers were on “Team Transitory”. They attributed the problem to base effects and temporary supply bottlenecks, implying that the high inflation rate would rapidly fall back to central banks’ 2 per cent target range.
Meanwhile, “Team Persistent” – led by Lawrence H Summers of Harvard ...