Comment: Europe cannot defeat an adversary ready to endure a 20% drop in national income if it is not willing to risk a 2% decline in its own

The EU’s economic conflict with Russia is entering a hazardous new phase

‘In the case of Germany, a widely cited paper by Rüdiger Bachmann and others puts the overall cost of an abrupt stop to Russian energy imports at between 0.5% and 3% of GDP. Results for the EU as a whole appear to be similar.’ Picture: Getty

In 2003, the conservative US pundit Robert Kagan famously wrote that Europe “is turning away from power; it is moving beyond power in a self-contained world of laws and rules.” After Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, the European Union decided that it was time to prove Kagan wrong. The EU has mobilised economic power, at least, against Russia’s military aggression, and deployed an array of monetary, financial, trade, and investment sanctions.

Europe’s swift and ...